Tarot Cards for the Massachusetts Economy
March 2nd, 2009
There is an awful lot of data out there on the state of the market. Many of these articles give projections of how long this recession will last, and others how a buyer/investor could take advantage of this housing crisis. One of the best sources I have found is the Greater Boston Housing Report Card.
In October 2008, The Center for Urban and Regional Policy at Northeastern University put together this report card. Here are my summary of some interesting sections:
Building permits are an indicator that new homes are not being added to the marketplace. This results in less supply for the given demand. This creates an increase in prices. The “Metropolitan Area” of the Boston region had a 50.8% decline in Building Permits from 2005 to 2008.
Net Migration is a statistic stating the increase or the loss in local population. An increase in population most likely would result in a stronger demand for housing, and therefore an increase in prices.
The outmigration of residents has occurred over the past few years, with the peak net migration loss between 2004-2005. Massachusetts lost a net of over 33000 residents during this period. Perhaps with the softening in home prices, Massachusetts saw a narrowing of this net migration in 2006-2007 of only 8100 residents.
An aside to this number is a recent United Van Lines Migration Study regarding their clients. Click here for the 2007 summary report. Only two Northeastern states experienced inbound migration this year – Vermont (52.2%) and Massachusetts (51.8%).
Check out the report for a full breakdown of all the stats, but I think what I found was a positive read. In taking each indicator, I think there are signs that this will not be a recession that is going to crush the Northeast region like some other areas of the country.
Then I insist you go walk around the block and stop that head from spinning!
Categories: Market Conditions, Real Estate
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